Voting Begins in Holland as Polls Suggest Potential Second Victory for Geert Wilders
The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.
Survey Results and Political Landscape
The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.
Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.
Major Parties and Projections
At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.
Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.
The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.
Electoral System and Political Division
Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.
This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.
Government Formation
Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.
Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.
Voting Process
Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.
Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.
